Episode 33 - Evolving Public Risk Perception with Brian LaMarre

Show Notes

Host: Ryan Harris

Guests: Brian LaMarre, NWS Meteorologist in Charge, Tampa Bay

Description: In 1900, an estimated 8,000 people lost their lives in the Great Galveston Hurricane that September. Our understanding of hurricane risk has improved immensely since then, but still over 100 were killed just 18 months ago in Hurricane Ian. Risk is defined as the probability of some hazard occurring multiplied by the impact that hazard may have on an individual, population, or system. The first problem here is that humans don't always understand probabilities, and the second problem is that humans have a psychological bias to downplay or plain ignore the risk of hazards because they haven't personally experienced the hazard before. Hurricane Ian was a perfect example of poor risk perceptions, and it's the first topic we uncover this year as Brian LaMarre from the National Weather Service joins The Triple Point™. Hear about how the Weather Service is improving risk perceptions with better technology and communications strategies, and also the importance of personal accountability and trusting authoritative sources. LISTEN HERE

References:

• 2023 was officially the warmest year on record (Copernicus)
• What caused the huge waves that battered the California coast? (San Luis Obispo Tribune)
• 40% of the population lives on the coast (NOAA)
• Ep 22 - Hunting Hurricanes (Triple Point)
• Hurricane Ian: a Perfect Psychological Storm (Triple Point)
• Large swaths of the U.S. are facing severe weather (NPR)

Weather and climate in the news

[01:43]

Introducing Brian LaMarre

[03:19]

El Nino's outsized effects on global and regional weather patterns

[07:15]

Structure and purpose of the National Weather Service

[10:21]

Communicating and understanding risk using Hurricane Ian as a good (or bad) example

[14:24]

Getting beyond the lived experience and breaking down risk perception barriers

[25:37]

Hazard response starts with personal accountability, trusting skilled practitioners, and community collaboration

[41:18]

Advice for up and coming meteorologists

[47:19]

Prediction Time: water impacts

[48:53]

Lightning Round

[51:18]