Episode 34 - Salient Innovations in Seasonal Prediction with Matt Stein

Show Notes

Host: Ryan Harris

Guest: Matt Stein, CEO, Salient Predictions

Description: The atmosphere is the main driver of our daily weather.  But it's the oceans, with its long-term thermodynamic memory, that drive our climate patterns from seasonal, to decadal, and beyond.  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and an increasing number of private industry companies like Salient Predictions use signals in long-term ocean patterns, soil moisture, sea ice, and snow cover to make much longer predictions than what you might see on your daily weather app.  Such signals give us long-term oscillation patterns like El Nino, the Arctic Oscillation, and more.  And these companies are helping industries from energy, to agriculture, to insurance buy down sub-seasonal to seasonal environmental risk.  It’s one of the frontiers in the weather and climate world where climate science meets data science head and where unique machine learning techniques are finding new signals in the noise of our chaotic climate. LISTEN HERE

References:

• Atlantic Ocean nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point (Guardian)
• Forecasters issue end of El Nino and issue La Nina Watch (Washington Post)
• A rainfall forecast worth its salt (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute)
• More atmospheric rivers loom for California (Fox News Weather)
• It’s Spring in the Midwest. The only problem is it’s Mid-Winter (CNN)
• What is an Entrepreneur in Residence? (CB Insights)
• Climate Prediction Center (NOAA)
• Argo Float Program (NOAA)
• Salient Predictions

Weather and climate in the news

[01:08]

A circuitous journey to CEO and serving 'data connoisseurs'

[04:20]

Supporting energy, agriculture, and insurance with sub-seasonal to seasonal Salient Predictions

[13:50]

Illuminating the business value of sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions

[21:32]

Using probabilistic information to better inform uncertainty and risk models

[24:53]

Differentiators from government and other climate services and importance of transparency

[26:44]

Technological gaps in sensing to inform seasonal prediction

[30:03]

Communicating risk and uncertainty in seasonal predictions

[35:51]

Career advice for early professionals

[40:45]

Prediction time: 10 times more collaboration

[43:53]

Lightning Round

[46:27]